Leeuwenhorst, Netherlands — People who want to see progressive change in the world constitute a majority, whether the issue is climate, inequality, poverty, peace or democracy. The good news is you only need 3.5% of a population for change.
“People who believe in those things are a majority of any society and the world as a whole. The problem is we don’t know how to act like a majority,” said Erica Chenoweth, Ph.D.
Chenoweth is academic dean for faculty engagement and the Frank Stanton Professor of the First Amendment at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. Chenoweth delivered that message when keynoting the International Fundraising Congress (IFC) here where the theme is Unite. Presented at the NH Noordwijk Conference Centre by the Resource Alliance, the announced attendance is 750 fundraisers from more than 60 countries. Another 400 people watched the keynote address live online.
Chenoweth has authored or edited nine books and dozens of articles on mass movements, nonviolent resistance, terrorism, political violence, revolutions and state repression. The most recent book, “Civil Resistance: What Everyone Needs to Know” (Oxford, 2021), explores what civil resistance is, how it works, why it sometimes fails, how violence and repression affect it and the long-term impacts of such resistance.
There were more people power movements between 1900 and 2021 than any time in history in various forms of non-cooperation for global democracy movements, said Chenoweth, who directs the Nonviolent Action Lab at Harvard. The problem is there has been a steady decline in success rates for movements during the past 15 years, down from the peak of more than 60% between 1970 and 1990 to roughly 10%. Those that have won are comprised of a diversity of people and the steady building of pressure.
In a separate open conversation with IFC Board Chair Bill Toliver, and in responding to questions from The NonProfit Times, she explained that social scientists have said that all revolutions require hope, create hope and betray hope.
“Hope is a really important thing. It mobilizes us or demobilizes us. … Hope and outrage together are the most powerful combination of emotions that we know of,” Chenoweth said.
Needing just 3.5% of a population to fuel a moment is actually a large number. “No mass mobilizations against government in the 20th century failed after mobilizing 3.5% of the population,” Chenoweth said. “That sounds like a small number but in absolute terms in the United States that would be 11.5 million people today. You’ve scarcely ever seen a mobilization of that size in the U.S.”
Some civic scientists believe you need 25% to change a system of government. “It requires people to change the way people relate,” said Chenoweth. “After 25% adopted the new practices that initiated cascading effect to change the whole system.”
Progressives need to find common ground among themselves before any meaningful change can be made. Citing scholar and social activist Bernice Johnson Reagon, Chenoweth said that if you are comfortable with everyone in your coalition it is not a coalition. “Progressives must learn how to cooperate around shared goals without people having top pass purity tests to be a part of that coalition,” Chenoweth said.
Fighting requires training and working together better. Power isn’t permanent. To get back to winning, said Chenoweth, progressives must sustain the momentum of the movement, induce defections from the pillars of the other side, go beyond digital activism and develop a global grassroots ecosystem.
